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What it shows is that as countries grow out of poverty, their economies become less specialized and more diversified. This seems to be true both across countries, and within countries over time.
Forex consejos-live blogspot the big deal, you might say. Well, it is a big deal if you have forex consejos-live blogspot brought up on the idea that the key to economic growth for poor countries lies in specialization according to comparative advantage. If that simple recipe were true, countries that are getting richer would be producing a narrower range of goods, not a broader range.
It takes a lot of mental gymnastics to square this stylized fact with the standard comparative advantage arguments. A far simpler interpretation is that the key to growth is the acquisition of production capabilities in an increasing range of goods, in a way that is often in tension with what comparative advantage would dictate.
Here is a paper that tries to make these ideas more precise. Forex consejos-live blogspot Imbs and Wacziarg data show that countries do begin to specialize after some point and hence the U-curve in the graphsbut that point comes relatively late in forex consejos-live blogspot development process, once Ireland's level of income is reached. Roberto Porzecanski's comment below provides an opportunity for clarification.
Roberto says the Imbs-Wacziarg result is consistent with trade models, insofar as countries that are growing through capital-deepening may end up producing a broader menu of goods as a result. But my concern is not whether this stylized fact is consistent with trade models it certainly isbut whether forex consejos-live blogspot is consistent with a story about trade and trade policy being a causal driver of growth.
If countries that are growing are those that are making use of comparative advantage while those that aren't are not, then you should see the growing group of countries becoming more specialized.
The standard trade-based story is that accumulation and productivity change are the result of an increase in the economy-wide return to such activities, driven by comparative advantage and therefore specialization. So you should see, at least over part of the lower-income range, a positive relationship between specialization and incomes. For more potential explanations, you should turn to the original Imbs-Wacziarg paper in the AER Romain Wacziarg May forex consejos-live blogspot, at Doesn't this happen because as a poor country, you will have a huge potential advantage at least vis-a-vis richer countries in forex consejos-live blogspot any market where labour is more important than capital.
As your labor becomes more expensive, it takes more and more capital technology, expertise to stay competitive with low-labor cost economies, and in some cases it becomes impossible, so you tend to specialize. This result doesn't seem to be incompatible with the theory of comparative advantage so much as with overzealous application of it. Michael Sullivan May 16, at The issue of specialization vs diversification is an important development issue that demands serious considerations.
Text books and most professors argue that the idea of specilization is one of the most important commandments that economic development has since On the other hand, if you are from small developing economy say Ethiopia, you will see that during period of demand shocks, say for coffee, you will realize how the currency depreciate very much and the supply of oil basic importlet alone important development goods such as equipments and machnies, decreases due to forex constraint.
If you are from Gana, you will realise such impacts when price of cocoa declines. May be specialization is helpful for booming world economy with less global shocks. Otherwise, it is one obstacle to development as it has been in the past and this is what the fact on the ground. Torben May 16, at Can you explain the graphs a little more?
I forex consejos-live blogspot that the vertical axis covers a tiny range. Is there a large difference between a gini coeff. Andrew May 16, at Or perhaps you could argue that, very early in the process of economic development, forex consejos-live blogspot typically engage in the export of a few primary products, which no amount of comparative advantage can turn into real wealth.
For some other reason they then start to 'take off', at this stage they experiment with a wide variety of industries forex consejos-live blogspot. I'm sure you have considered whether this is a cause or consequence of growth. Perhaps you could explain why? My apologies for the question above. My question should have been: The empirical evidence on development and diversification presented by paper by Imbs forex consejos-live blogspot Wacziarg is powerful.
It is not clear, however, forex consejos-live blogspot this result is inconsistent with classic trade theory, even under the most restrictive assumptions. However, I believe pointing this fact does not weaken your core insights about trade policy. Thanks for the response.
You get richer, you consume a more diverse array of goods, which you have to produce. You could get the same sort of effect even if everything were tradable, but with transport costs. I did have a quick skim of the paper. I don't have time at the minute to read every word, but they did mention this kind of thing. However, they said that it couldn't explain the non-montone relationship. Fair enough, but most forex consejos-live blogspot models have difficulty with non-monotone relationships. You could easily add a few bells and whistles to my basic story to get the U-shape.
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Could you please explain the high growth-high diversification of Chinese economy but a lower growth and more specialized trade pattern of the Indian economy? Account Deleted June 12, at Forex consejos-live blogspot haven't really noticed much of this new intellectual climate here amongst development practitioners in Africa.
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